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Data
Our collectors run continuously and keep every observation, building a multi-year archive of prices and results.
Quantitative football research
Every match has a fair price.
An independent research firm. We collect our own market and match data, price football over/under markets with our own models, and take a position only where our price and the market's disagree.
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Ingestodds · fixtures · match stats
own collectors
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Modela match becomes a fair price
frozen · versioned
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Priceour price against the market's
edge per line
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Gatefixed rules, set in advance
most rejected
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Logwritten before anything acts
append-only
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Settlegraded on the official result
automatic
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What we do
Two halves of one system, both built in-house. The models are ours and so is the data behind them.
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Modelling
Our models produce a price, not a prediction — a number to hold against the market. What runs in production is fixed and versioned.
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How we work
Most of the engineering here exists to stop us fooling ourselves. These rules are enforced in code, not remembered.
The rules are fixed first
Thresholds are set before a market is priced and do not move afterwards. A live model is improved by releasing a new version, never by editing the running one.
Nothing acts before it is logged
Every decision goes to an append-only log first. A losing period is as permanent as a winning one.
Tested on data it never saw
Validation runs forward in time: the test period comes after everything the model has seen. A random split would leak the future into the past.
Live is checked against research
A separate process re-runs the research over the same fixtures, then compares it position by position with what the live system did. Disagreement is a defect.
When in doubt, do nothing
If an input is missing, stale or unverifiable, the system declines to act. Silence is an acceptable output; a guess is not.
Volume is an output, not a target
There is no quota. Whatever clears the gates is what goes out, and on some days nothing does. A quiet day is left quiet.
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Track record
as of 16 Sep 2026Every football signal we have settled, exactly as logged.
2,847Settled signals
+9.5%Return on stake
+271.0uNet units
56.6%Strike rate
12 Jun – 16 Sep 2026 · 1534W / 138P / 1175L · avg odds 1.93 · flat 1u stakes
Show the most recently settled positions
Recently settled
Last 10 of 2,847 settled signals · newest first| Date | Match | Selection | Odds | Final | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | CD Ayense v TapatioMexico Copa Promesas | UNDER 3.25 | 1.90 | 6 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | C.U.N.E. v Defensores Puerto VilelasArgentina Regional League | OVER 2.25 | 1.85 | 7 | WIN | +0.85u |
| 15 Sep | Indy Eleven v Brooklyn FCUSA USL Championship | UNDER 3.25 | 1.90 | 4 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | Barranquilla FC v Independiente Valle del CaucaColombia Primera B | OVER 2.25 | 1.98 | 2 | HALF L | -0.50u |
| 15 Sep | CD Origen (W) v Deportivo Chiriqui (W)Panama First Division Women | OVER 4.25 | 1.90 | 5 | WIN | +0.90u |
| 15 Sep | Leatherhead v AFC WhyteleafeEngland Isthmian Premier Division | OVER 3 | 2.00 | 0 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | Consett v SilsdenEngland Northern League Division One | OVER 3 | 1.90 | 2 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | Celtic B v Dalbeattie StarScotland Lowland League | OVER 4 | 1.90 | 2 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | Limavady United v Bangor FCNorthern Ireland Premier | UNDER 2.75 | 1.95 | 4 | LOSS | -1.00u |
| 15 Sep | Itaucu EC U20 v Campineira U20Brazil Copa Goias 2 U20 | OVER 3.5 | 1.90 | 7 | WIN | +0.90u |
“Final” shows the settled goal total the over/under line was graded against. Members see every signal delivered to them in a personal ledger that updates daily.
Method
- Log-first: every position is logged before it is acted on, so the record cannot be trimmed afterwards.
- Everything counts: every position since day one stays in, including those from configurations we have since retired.
- Flat 1-unit stakes, booked at the odds on record when the decision was made and graded automatically against official results. Abandoned fixtures count as stake returned.
This is a short track record over a limited period. Results to date are no guarantee of future results, and any individual outcome will differ with timing, availability and the prices actually obtained. Losing runs are a normal feature of betting at these odds and will occur.
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Signals
A small number of clients receive the same pre-match selections our models generate.
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Delivered as they qualify
Selections arrive in your own private group, within a second or so of clearing the gates. Pre-match only.
Formatper signal- FIXTURE
- teams · competition · kick-off
- MARKET
- over/under, with the line
- PRICE
- the odds the position was taken at
- EDGE
- model probability against the implied price
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You stay in control
You decide what to act on and at what stake. One command pauses delivery — while paused, nothing is sent, recorded or billed.
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Your own audited ledger
Everything delivered to you is graded automatically and recorded in a personal ledger with prices, results and running profit. You can check every number we bill you for.
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Aligned pricing
You are billed on net units of profit from what was actually delivered to you, rather than a flat subscription. A losing period carries no fee.
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Integrity
We work in a market where overstatement is normal, so it is worth being explicit about what we are and are not.
We hold no funds
We accept no stakes, hold no client money, and operate no accounts on anyone’s behalf. CIOREBL is not a bookmaker, not an intermediary, and not affiliated with any bookmaker.
No guarantees, ever
Nothing here is a promise of profit, and no past result is a forecast. An edge is a statistical expectation, visible only across a large number of settled positions.
Public information only
Our models are built from publicly available market and match data. We neither seek, pay for, nor act on inside information, and we have no involvement with any club, player or official.
The record stands as logged
Results come straight from the append-only log, written as the system runs rather than assembled once the outcomes are known. Weak periods stay in the figures.
Betting responsibly
Betting involves financial risk and you can lose your entire stake. Results to date do not guarantee future outcomes, and every decision to bet is yours alone. Our services are for adults only and are not offered to residents of the Netherlands. Our responsible-gambling page lists free, confidential support services by country and explains how to set limits or self-exclude.
Talk to us
Whether it is access, a research partnership, or a question about the figures on this page, you will be answered by the people who build the models — not a sales desk.
Message us on Telegram
or email lbbpicks@gmail.com