Quantitative football research

Every match has a fair price.

An independent research firm. We collect our own market and match data, price football over/under markets with our own models, and take a position only where our price and the market's disagree.

What we do See the record

Pipeline continuous

01 Ingestodds · fixtures · match stats own collectors

02 Modela match becomes a fair price frozen · versioned

03 Priceour price against the market's edge per line

04 Gatefixed rules, set in advance most rejected

05 Logwritten before anything acts append-only

06 Settlegraded on the official result automatic

What we do

Two halves of one system, both built in-house. The models are ours and so is the data behind them.

Data

Our collectors run continuously and keep every observation, building a multi-year archive of prices and results.

Modelling

Our models produce a price, not a prediction — a number to hold against the market. What runs in production is fixed and versioned.

How we work

Most of the engineering here exists to stop us fooling ourselves. These rules are enforced in code, not remembered.

Pre-commitment

The rules are fixed first

Thresholds are set before a market is priced and do not move afterwards. A live model is improved by releasing a new version, never by editing the running one.

Log-first

Nothing acts before it is logged

Every decision goes to an append-only log first. A losing period is as permanent as a winning one.

Out-of-sample

Tested on data it never saw

Validation runs forward in time: the test period comes after everything the model has seen. A random split would leak the future into the past.

Reconciliation

Live is checked against research

A separate process re-runs the research over the same fixtures, then compares it position by position with what the live system did. Disagreement is a defect.

Fail-closed

When in doubt, do nothing

If an input is missing, stale or unverifiable, the system declines to act. Silence is an acceptable output; a guess is not.

Selectivity

Volume is an output, not a target

There is no quota. Whatever clears the gates is what goes out, and on some days nothing does. A quiet day is left quiet.

Track record

as of 31 Oct 2026

Every football signal we have settled, exactly as logged.

4,101Settled signals

+9.9%Return on stake

+404.1uNet units

56.9%Strike rate

12 Jun – 31 Oct 2026 · 2220W / 202P / 1679L · avg odds 1.93 · flat 1u stakes

Cumulative profit · football, over/under goals · flat 1 unit per position

Show the most recently settled positions

Recently settled

Last 10 of 4,101 settled signals · newest first

The most recently settled positions, with the selection, the price it was taken at, the final result and the profit or loss in units.
Date	Match	Selection	Odds	Final	Result	P&L
31 Oct	Canterbury United (W) v CF Wellington United (W)New Zealand National League Women	OVER 4	2.00	4	PUSH	+0.00u
31 Oct	Newtown United FC v TGE Dieppe Bay EaglesSaint Kitts & Nevis Premier League	OVER 4	1.95	4	PUSH	+0.00u
31 Oct	Miramar Rangers v Wellington OlympicNew Zealand Football Championship	UNDER 3.5	1.98	2	WIN	+0.98u
30 Oct	Union Omaha v Chattanooga Red WolvesUSA USL League One	UNDER 2.75	2.02	2	WIN	+1.02u
30 Oct	Mons Calpe SC Yucatan v Ejidatarios de BonfilMexico Liga TDP	UNDER 3.25	1.82	6	LOSS	-1.00u
30 Oct	Tevi Cocle (W) v CD Origen (W)Panama First Division Women	UNDER 6	1.98	4	WIN	+0.98u
30 Oct	Potros Del Este v Alianza FC ReservesPanama Liga Prom	UNDER 3	2.00	2	WIN	+1.00u
30 Oct	Oaxaca II v CDM FCMexico Liga TDP	UNDER 3.25	1.82	7	LOSS	-1.00u
30 Oct	KFC Merelbeke v SK RoeselareBelgium First Amateur Division	UNDER 2.75	2.00	4	LOSS	-1.00u
30 Oct	West Ham U21 v Sheff Utd U21England U21 Premier League Cup	UNDER 3.75	1.90	3	WIN	+0.90u

“Final” shows the settled goal total the over/under line was graded against. Members see every signal delivered to them in a personal ledger that updates daily.

Method

Log-first: every position is logged before it is acted on, so the record cannot be trimmed afterwards.
Everything counts: every position since day one stays in, including those from configurations we have since retired.
Flat 1-unit stakes, booked at the odds on record when the decision was made and graded automatically against official results. Abandoned fixtures count as stake returned.

This is a short track record over a limited period. Results to date are no guarantee of future results, and any individual outcome will differ with timing, availability and the prices actually obtained. Losing runs are a normal feature of betting at these odds and will occur.

Signals

A small number of clients receive the same selections our models generate.

Delivered as they qualify

Selections arrive in your own private group, within a second or so of clearing the gates. Pre-match, and in-play for some markets.

Formatper signal

FIXTURE
teams · competition · kick-off

TIMING
pre-match, or in-play with minute and score

MARKET
the selection, with the line

PRICE
the odds the position was taken at
You stay in control

You decide what to act on and at what stake. One command pauses delivery — while paused, nothing is sent, recorded or billed.
Your own audited ledger

Everything delivered to you is graded automatically and recorded in a personal ledger with prices, results and running profit. You can check every number we bill you for.
Aligned pricing

You pay a service fee on the net units won by the signals actually delivered to you, rather than a flat subscription. A losing period carries no fee.

Integrity

We work in a market where overstatement is normal, so it is worth being explicit about what we are and are not.

We hold no funds

We accept no stakes, hold no client money, and operate no accounts on anyone’s behalf. CIOREBL is not a bookmaker, not an intermediary, and not affiliated with any bookmaker.

No guarantees, ever

Nothing here is a promise of profit, and no past result is a forecast. An edge is a statistical expectation, visible only across a large number of settled positions.

Public information only

Our models are built from publicly available market and match data. We neither seek, pay for, nor act on inside information, and we have no involvement with any club, player or official.

The record stands as logged

Results come straight from the append-only log, written as the system runs rather than assembled once the outcomes are known. Weak periods stay in the figures.

Betting responsibly

Betting involves financial risk and you can lose your entire stake. Results to date do not guarantee future outcomes, and every decision to bet is yours alone. Our services are for adults only and are not offered to residents of the Netherlands. Our responsible-gambling page lists free, confidential support services by country and explains how to set limits or self-exclude.

Talk to us

Whether it is access, a research partnership, or a question about the figures on this page, you will be answered by the people who build the models — not a sales desk.

Message us on Telegram

or email lbbpicks@gmail.com